Export and Economic Growth in Egypt: Coinegration and Causality Analysis


Topic: Export and Economic Growth in Egypt: Coinegration and Causality Analysis

Research Topic
The paper investigates the empirical evidence on the link between export and economic growth by using monthly (or quarterly)

time series data for the Egyptian economy over the period 2000-2010.
The study applies Johensen and Juselius co-integration and Granger Causality test.
The paper should include the following sections, among others:
Introduction
The introduction should cover the following points:
1. The relationship between export and economic growth in general and in developing countries in particular.
2. Potential benefits associated with export-led growth strategy.
3. Problems and drawbacks of export-led growth strategy.
4. Review of Egyptian economy, especially during the period of study.
Literature Review
This section should include the following points:
1. Brief of theories about the role of export in economic growth such as classical economic theory and neo-classical theory.
2. Review of recent previous studies that tested the export-growth relationship in general.
3. Review of recent previous studies that analyzed the relationship between exports and economic growth in Egypt, with main

findings of these studies.
Methodology, Model and Data Sets
In this study, the validity of export-led growth in Egypt needs to be examined or tested by using Johensen Cointegration

analysis. Initially, both ADF and Philips Perron unit root test need to be employed to examine stationary whether the

variables present a unit root. Also, the Johensen co-integration method needs to be applied to check if there is

co-integration relationships exist among export and growth.
The paper should explore the short-term and long-term relationship between export (LX) and growth (LY) by applying

co-integration and analysis and Granger causality test.
I expect a description of unit root test. Its results must be illustrated and explained in details.
I expect a description of Co-integration test. Its results must be illustrated and explained in details.
I expect a description of Granger Causality test. Its results must be illustrated and explained in details.
Data must be obtained from very reliable and recognizable sources (Egyptian sources or World Bank sources).
Results
The paper must compare between its results or findings and other previous studies on Egypt mentioned in literature review.
References
Very recent studies on Egypt and studies done by international organizations such as World Bank should be identified.
Important Note
I need a draft of my paper.

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